Executive summary

The disruptive potential of artificial intelligence (AI) is set to transform the information landscape this year amid a backdrop of global political and economic uncertainty. This shift will have significant implications for the reliability of information and the sustainability of traditional media, especially in a year marked by critical elections in over 40 democracies and ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. With forecasts suggesting that the majority of internet content will be synthetically generated by 2026, journalists and news organizations will need to rapidly reassess their roles and objectives.

It’s not just the content that will be transformed; distribution channels are also facing a major shift. This year will see the rollout of Search Generative Experiences (SGE) and a wave of AI-driven chatbots, offering users a faster and more intuitive way to access information. In light of declining referral traffic from platforms like Facebook and X (formerly Twitter), these developments could further reduce audience flows to established news websites, putting additional pressure on their financial stability.

Some publishers are hopeful that this could lead to reduced dependency on a few dominant tech platforms and foster closer relationships with loyal readers. To achieve this, media companies may introduce more paywalls and engage in legal battles to protect their intellectual property. However, these strategies could alienate younger and less educated audiences who are more accustomed to algorithmically generated news and have weaker ties to traditional media.

Amid these changes, there are also opportunities, and this report highlights innovative ways in which news organizations worldwide are adapting to this new environment. The key theme for the year ahead will be harnessing the benefits of AI while mitigating its risks.

Insights from Media Leaders on the Year Ahead

Here are the main insights from our industry survey, which includes input from over 300 digital leaders across more than 50 countries and territories:

• Only 47% of surveyed editors, CEOs, and digital executives are optimistic about the future of journalism this year, with 12% expressing low confidence. Concerns include rising costs, declining ad revenues, slowing subscription growth, and increasing legal and physical threats. However, some are hopeful that upcoming elections in the US and elsewhere may temporarily boost news consumption and engagement, despite the potential for further erosion of trust.
• Nearly two-thirds (63%) of respondents are concerned about a significant decline in referral traffic from social media platforms. According to data from analytics provider Chartbeat, traffic to news sites from Facebook fell by 48% in 2023, while traffic from X/Twitter declined by 27%. In response, about three-quarters (77%) plan to focus more on their direct channels, with 22% looking to cut costs and 20% experimenting with alternative third-party platforms.
• Publishers are increasingly investing in WhatsApp (+61 net score) and Instagram (+39) following Meta’s decision to allow broadcast channels for publishers. Interest in video platforms like TikTok (+55) and YouTube (+44) remains strong, while Google Discover is emerging as a more important but unpredictable referral source. In contrast, sentiment towards Facebook (-38 net score) and X/Twitter (-39 net score) has worsened this year.
• Most publishers plan to increase their focus on video content (+64 net score), newsletters (+52), and podcasts (+47) while maintaining the current volume of news articles. This shift reflects a focus on areas with potential for audience and advertiser growth. Approximately 54% of respondents admit their companies prioritize maximizing audience attention, while 37% emphasize being more respectful of their audience’s time.
• Concerns about selective news avoidance and news fatigue persist, particularly with ongoing stories like the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine. To counter these trends, publishers plan to focus on better explaining complex stories (67%), adopting solutions-oriented approaches (44%), and sharing more inspirational human stories (43%). Less support was shown for commissioning more positive (21%) or entertaining (18%) news.
• On the business front, publishers continue to invest in subscription and membership models, with 80% considering these to be crucial revenue streams, surpassing display and native advertising. Many report stable or slightly increased subscription numbers despite the challenging economic climate.
• As some publishers pursue lucrative licensing deals with AI platforms, there is skepticism about equitable revenue distribution. About 35% of respondents believe that most revenue will go to large publishers, while 48% feel there will be little financial benefit for any publisher.
• AI is primarily seen as valuable for back-end news automation (56%), enhancing content recommendations (37%), and commercial purposes (28%). However, there is ambivalence about using AI for content creation, which over half of respondents view as a significant reputational risk.
• Emerging internet interfaces, such as AR and VR glasses and wearable devices, will continue to develop. However, existing AI-enhanced voice-activated devices, like headphones and smart speakers, are viewed as the most likely to supplement or even replace smartphones in the medium term (41%).

Predictions for 2024

• Expect more newspapers to cease daily print editions as costs rise and distribution networks falter or reach breaking points.
• Look for a significant shift towards bundling digital news with other content, as major publishers aim to lock in customers with all-access subscriptions that include games, podcasts, magazines, books, and content from other publishers.
• Big tech platforms will continue to explore paid business models to reduce their reliance on advertising. X, Meta, and TikTok are likely to introduce more premium services, including ad-free and privacy-friendly options.
• AI-driven bots and personal assistants will become more popular for accessing up-to-date news and sports information, raising critical questions about intellectual property. Many of these bots will be personality or journalist-driven, leveraging cloning technologies and prompting legal and ethical considerations.
• Debates between AI pessimists and optimists will continue throughout 2024, with high-profile statements about potential risks and organizational upheavals. Optimists are likely to maintain the upper hand as governments struggle to regulate the technology.
• While the prediction that Elon Musk would step down as CEO of Twitter was accurate, few anticipated the extent of the upheaval that included massive job cuts, a name change to X, and Musk’s public disputes with advertisers. Expect more unpredictable moves in 2024.